Month: September 2018

Understanding Inundation Risk

Sea Level Rise

In the State of Maryland, permanently inundated land is no longer real estate, the title is invalid. In Charles County, sea level rise is a risk for land loss particularly around Blossom Point and Cobb Island. This map indicates the present elevation of low lying areas in meters.

There is uncertainty in expected sea level rise and its timing, not only owing to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions (stuff we can fix) but also owing our incomplete understanding of how abruptly ice can enter the oceans from the big reservoirs in Antarctica and Greenland.

This next figure needs some unpacking. It comes from this government report.

The blue line in (a) is the intermediate scenario reaching about 3 ft of sea level rise in 2100. But that is average over the globe. The orange patches around where we live indicate that the sea level rise we would see would be around one to two feet higher than that. Similarly, where the blue line gives about a foot for the average in 2050, we would be closer to 2 feet by then. This would make tidal encroachment on the new sewage treatment facility for Cobb Island a fairly regular occurrence by mid-century. Beach erosion for the island itself could be a serious problem for property owners even sooner.

By the end of the century, Cobb Island would be overwashed by moderate storms with some frequency bringing damage similar to that brought by Isabel, perhaps annually. The sewage treatment facility would have to have modifications to prevent inundation and roads and bridges would need serious improvements. The red line in (a) which combines everything extra bad scientists have considered thus far (worst case) gets us to this situation fifty years earlier around 2050. At the close of the next Charles County Comprehensive Plan, 2036, we’d see what we would expect in 2050 for the intermediate scenario.

Storms

This government report anticipates how often very strong rainfall events will occur as a consequence of climate change. As can be seen above, a trend is already strong in our region as Ellicott City can attest. With continued greenhouse gas emissions, the trend could grow to close to a 300% increase in our region. Strong, slow moving rain events put great pressure on our stormwater management infrastructure and may make emergency services unable to respond to calls during flooding emergencies when roads are overwhelmed. Management of this change in conditions may require enlarged culverts, strengthened water retention facilities and even raised roads. Participation in the national flood insurance program may need to be broadened as well as flood maps are revised to include more property within the 100 year flood contours.

This campaign is concerned with preparing Charles County for the unavoidable effects of climate change such as larger flooding events, property impacts of sea level rise and emergency preparedness for longer hotter heat waves that endanger vulnerable residents.  That is a proper local government function. But Charles County has also already taken steps to reduce the emissions that will make these effects even worse. On a broad scale, it has banned fracking for natural gas in the County and denied a permit for the construction of a fracked gas compressor station. Both these actions could help to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions. But a local government’s leverage on these larger actions is limited. We have been inspirational to other localities and indeed probably helped in forwarding the ban on fracking in the entire State. But the nitty gritty is where local government has its most concrete impacts. Here are a few proposals that get down in the weeds.

• Seek a new contract to install solar panels as shaded parking at County facilities including parks, libraries and government offices. This makes facilities more welcoming, keeping cars cooler, and will save the county money on electricity.
• Find ways to support solar coops within our electric coop for homes that may not have ideal roofs for solar.

  

• Seek to locate portions of the offshore wind industry in Charles County. This is a growth industry that will provide jobs over the coming decades. Even though Senator Middleton is supporting one of my opponents, I’d certainly seek his assistance in bringing this about.
• Heat pump water heaters can save on bills and also have rebates and tax credits.  The County’s good borrowing power and first creditor status may be helpful in smoothing out the upfront costs in making a conversion. This would give all county property owners access to the same low cost of credit that the County has earned for itself.  Similar arrangements might be made for replacing furnaces with heat pump home heating.
• County employees should have every opportunity to commute in electric vehicles and car charging infrastructure should be provided at the workplace, probably as a part of the solar installation described above.
• County contracts should be examined for opportunities to use electric transportation and hauling. Electric school busses have a clear benefit for delivering students more ready to learn compared to diesel busses. But trash hauling trucks are also available in quiet electric versions. Setting an example with the County recycling contract may lead residents to insist on quieter operations from their own haulers.
• Hyattsville’s Sergeant Hartnett is demonstrating that the Chevy Bolt is a good patrol car for police work and Maryland Department of Energy now has experience from that conversion. Charles County might be the right place to apply that knowledge to the Tesla Model 3.

Much of this is working together to smooth the way. Many hands make light work as is said in Hawaii. Saving energy makes light work too.